Thermal Forecast Updates 2024
Because the German Weather Service (DWD) is going to cease the production of the Regtherm forecasts by March 31, 2024, and therefore the monopoly for the production of Regtherm is given up, XC Therm produces the thermal forecasts on its own starting 01.01.2024.
Together with DWD's flugwetter.de and Java TopTask, also Alptherm by AustroControl will be affected by this change. Because AustroControl is not going to produce Regtherm on its own, XC Therm is now the perfect replacement for all DWD and AustroControl users who do not want to live without the best thermal forecast for Europe.
The complex production of Regtherm by XC Therm is a great opportunity to further develop the Regtherm model at a fast pace. Some of the upcoming extensions are presented on this page.
While this page gives a general overview of all news, the details can be found in our FAQ.
More Forecast Regions
Comparison between the 289 old regions and 654 new test regions.
Starting January 2024, there will be forecasts for 654 regions and this number is going to increase beyond 1000 during Spring.
This increase in number of regions is possible by:
- Refining existing regions for a higher forecast resolution.
- Extending geographical coverage, to include larger parts of Spain, Italy, Poland, Lithuania and Sweden.
More Frequent Updates
For choosing the optimal flight region, it is important to always have the most recent Regtherm forecast available as early as possible. Therefore, on XC Therm, there are updates for the next day in 3-hour intervals starting with the ICON-D2/EU noon runs.
In the early morning hours, it is crucial to have the most recent forecast at hand as the final decision where to fly needs to be taken. XC Therm publishes the thermal forecasts as soon as the ICON runs are available.
Run
ICON-D2
ICON-EU
12z
14:00
15:45
15z
17:00
n/a
18z
20:00
21:45
21z
23:30
00:30
00z
01:45
03:30
03z
04:30
06:15
Publication times (UTC) of the thermal forecasts for the next (resp. current) day
Using high-resolution ICON-D2 model
ICON-EU vs ICON-D2 grid resolution
The thermal forecasts for the current and the next day are now calculated using the high-resolution ICON-D2 model where the regions are within the coverage of ICON-D2.
For all other forecast days as well as for regions not within the ICON-D2 coverage, the input data are still taken from ICON-EU.
More Supported Aircraft Types
With Java Toptask being discontinued, an important tool for glider pilots disappears as well. The good news is that XC Therm will extend its thermal as well as wind and weather forecasts to suit the needs of glider pilots in Q1 2024.
For the thermal forecasts, XC Therm will calculate the potential flight distance (PFD) for a larger selection of aircraft types.
The ICON-D2/EU wind forecasts will be extended with new altitudes (5000m and 6000m) and the scale will be adapted to the flight speed of gliders.
List of all supported aircraft types:
- Paraglider
- Hang glider
- Rigid Wing
- Glider open
- Glider 18m
- Glider 15m
- Glider standard
- Archaeopteryx
